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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still